12 Nov '11, 11am

Now Italy – What’s Next: by Alex Lee

by Alex Lee 10th November 2011 After seeing his parliamentary majority decline further in a routine vote earlier today, Italian PM Berlusconi offered to resign once Parliament approves new austerity measures, possibly towards the end of next week. We see three possible outcomes at this delicate stage, with different implications for the BTP market and Italian risk premium more broadly: *Most likely scenario: In the coming weeks, the current centre-right coalition of the Northern League and PdL moves to rally round another candidate who can gain wider acceptance domestically and internationally. In order to broaden its support, the new government may reach out to smaller centrist parties which can advance their own political agenda. A centre-right executive backed by a broader coalition and committed to implementing the ‘troika’s’ economic platform could eventually stabiliz...

Full article: http://blog.limkitsiang.com/2011/11/12/now-italy-whats-next/

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